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The Washington Post continues its series on the Democratic Presidential candidates today, with a profile of John Edwards. Just because he's from the South don't make him no conservative. We all know he's a trial lawyer, but he claims he became one to "protect innocent people from blind justice the best I can." What on earth does that mean? One of our most important symbols is that of blind justice.
Tuesday, June 03, 2003 AFI, for the last few years, has been running a series of "100 Best" or "100 Greatest" films of various genres. Tonight, they unveiled a list of the 100 greatest heroes and villains, 50 of each. Most of them are fairly unexceptional, but a few were very strange.
Sunday, June 01, 2003 Thomas Friedman's latest piece is another attempt to "explain" why they hate us. Sadly, there's really nothing new in it, but he continues to repeat a few tired maxims about the rest of the world feeling bruited about by our technology, and scared by our military. All of this has some truth to it, and he at least gives us some credit for being a benign hegemon, but on just about every point he either overstates his case or repeats outright fallacies. In the first place, he argues that the Seattle riots had a "fringe element." This "fringe element" isn't so fringe, as the International ANSWER folks have shown. Far from being a minor sideshow, they remain the motivating spirit behind the lawlessness that follows these demonstrations around the globe. The signs in Lausanne, in France, in Seattle, in Genoa, are almost all socialist. Far from being people who felt powerless in the face of US cultural hegemony, many of them are simply losers of history, trying to continue the fight by any means available Secondly, we have heard the arguments about economies being too intertwined for war before. Almost exactly 100 years ago, in fact. Prior to World War I, it was proposed in respectable circles that Germany could never go to war against France again: the costs would be too devastating to both sides. Today, there's simply no country in Europe capable of launching a rival military force; in fact, Europe as a whole isn't militarily capable of challenging us, or economically capable of sustaining such a challenge. This hasn't kept France, Germany, and Belgium from trying, of course, but even they were too embarassed to admit this is what they were really trying to do. China, on the other hand, has nowhere near the force projection of the US Navy, but is building up formidable coastal defenses and attack capabilities for a war to retake Taiwan. This qualifies as a local military response, but one which, if successful, could easily snowball into regional and theater responses as US allies hedge their bets in the face of a growling tiger. In short, all of the nonaction which Friedman attributes to more benign motives can be equally well-explained by less noble intentions. Countries start wars because they think they can win. It is up to us make sure that our adversaries don't make that miscalculation - again. When Yitzchak Rabin was killed, one of the well-reported highlights of his career as a military officer was the Altalena incident. In 1948, Israel had just survived the first attempted murder by its neighbors, andthe Jews found themselves with a state. At the time, though, there wasn't just one military outfit loose in the country. There was the Haganah, but there was also the Irgun, headed by Menachem Begin. It's best-known for Deir Yassin, although even then, it's best known for things it didn't actually do, rather than things it did. But it was more aggressive than the Haganah, and commanded its own set of loyalties. It was clear at the time that a country, a real country, can't tolerate the presence of independent military organizations operating within its borders (a fact that many Arabists don't seem to have grasped). Ben-Gurion certainly understood this. When a ship called the Altalena reached the Israeli coast, laden with arms for the Irgun, he ordered it sunk. Rabin was the one who actually gave the order to fire. Begin, called on by some firebrands to respond, spoke up in the Knesset to denounce the action, and then to order the integration of the Irgun units into the Haganah, to form the Israel Defense Forces. In 1995, stress was laid on Rabin's role, but it was probably the least significant of the three. Ben-Gurion was the towering Israeli political figure for over 30 years, but he was not invincible. He lost the argument to accept the 1937 British proposal, which would have provided a state, tiny though it was, to accept refugees from Europe. Eventually, he was defeated politically in the early 1960s. He risked a tremendous amount by ordering Jewish soldiers to fire on fellow Jews, and he risked civilwar had Begin decided to resist. Begin deserves no less credit. Given an opportunity to behave like Jefferson Davis, he instead was Lee at Appomattox. He also understood the importance of a united military, and, though it would take 30 years for his Likud party to gain power, the benefits of working through a political system. Why is this important now? Compare the situation and the actions of the Israelis in 1948 to those of the Palestinians now. Not only the survival of Israel, but the survival of a normal Palestinian state depends on Mohammad Abbas defanging the terrorist militias. Not merely getting them to a cease-fire, but disarming them. They cannot be safely integrated into a Palestinian military. The Irgun may have been more radical in its means, but it essentially shared Labour's notion of what Israel should become - a non-theocratic, democratic Jewish state. There is no such common ground between sane Palestinians and the Islamists in question. So far, neither Abbas nor Hamas, Islamic Jihad, or the various incarnations of PLO death squads show any willingness to subsume their ambitions for the greater good. Abbas is unwilling to invoke force, and the Islamists are unwilling to stand down. For peace to work in the region, the Palestinians will have to produce both a Ben-Gurion and Begin. There are no signs so far that they're capable of it. Friday, May 30, 2003
Game Theory
Now that Yasser, wants your baby, Arafat, don't mean maybe, has re-inserted himself into the "peace" process, delaying the Sharon-Abbas summit just to show who's boss, the whole thing begins to look a lot less like momentum towards peace a more like the kind of momentum that carries you off the cliff. We've been this way with Arafat before, and if he needs to approve anything Abbas comes knocking on his door with (not too hard, though; the building might collapse), there's really no point in continuing. The US and Israel have invested a tremendous amount of capital in sidelining the Butcher of Ramallah, and for good reason. Letting him back into the game will just mean more Jews getting killed. Probably more Palestinians, too. The fact is, Arafat still controls the executive, and, as in most dictatorships of the Arab flavor, Presidents make the rules, and Prime Ministers look pretty. Arafat has served notice that this part of the game isn't over yet. As long as there's someone playing good-cop/bad-cop, there's a State Department willing to play Criminal Intent. One of the excuses we've heard is that we need to give Abbas concessions to strengthen his hand against Arafat. Now we've heard this before. We need to help the Soviet "moderates" against the Soviet "hard-liners." We need to help the Iranian "reformers" so they'll be stronger against the "hard-line" mullahs. We need to help a conciliatory Arafat against the radical - , oh, um, yeah. The problem with this reasoning is that the other side knows perfectly well what it is you're doing. They know that the reason they got, say, Hebron, is because you want Abbas to look good, and so they'll finally turn around and dump Yasser into Galilee and hold his head under. They know this, because you've told them so. The problem for them is, then what? What about after Yasser's been sent to the great beyond? Then, you've got what you want, so you don't have to give in any more, and you can play hardball. But they know that, too. And it's obvious then that Abbas didn't win anything, Arafat won the concessions. At the very least, he's useful to have around as a threat; at worst, he's able to re-establish himself as the real power in the terror-tories. We worked hard to throw Arafat overboard because we didn't think we could deal with him, and because he had too much blood on his hands. We only got a Prime Minister, able to appoint, in theory, his own cabinet, because we said we weren't talking at all until they installed one. And we got the Palestinians to approve the Road Map, flawed as it is, by refusing to talk until they did. Now, if it turns out that Arafat is still behind the curtain, all of that will have been for naught. And we'll be right back to the same old game of watching Arafat pocket real concessions for false words. Only this time, you can barely see his lips move.
The Washington Post has a neat little Java applet on their SARS page (this morning it's about how Canada is quarantining 5000 more people; at this rate, it'll be the Blue Jays, not the Expos, that move to DC).
Wednesday, May 28, 2003
So, we're wrapping up the MIS course here in business school, and we're taking a look at the future technologies. For some reason, when discussing biological interaction, the professor brings up the iNax toilet, which will, should you choose, invade your internals and report your blood pressure, alcohol content, temperature, and who knows what else. This is scary. Oh, sure. You're probably thinking what all those authors of 1950's science fiction had in mind: robots serving drinks and doing the laundry; automatic mixing of you high-blood pressure medication with the drinking water; Mom and Dad interrupting their argument over his affair and her make-up to run upstairs at the silent alarm that says Timmy's at 102. Right.
Israel has taken over the rotating chairmanship of the UN Conference on Disarmament (this was the conference that Iraq was to have chaired; the rotation is alphabetical). A number of Muslim countries, with the notable inclusion of Egypt and the notable exception of Turkey, have chosen to sit thi month out, with chair empty and low-level officials skulking around the back of the hall. Ostensibly, their boycott is in protest of Israel's refusal to leave itself defenseless. The Israeli chairman called for "dialogue and acceptance."
Tuesday, May 27, 2003
We should have seen this one coming. Canada bullied the WHO into saying that everything in Toronto was just fine. Then, new cases, and 500 Canadians quarantined. Canadian officials, evidently having recently graduated from the Peking School of Public Relations, informed the world that everything is all right. And now, the Washington Post reports that 1400 people are in quarantine, and the WHO has put Toronto back on notice.
Meet the New Yasser, Same as the old Yasser
Saturday, May 24, 2003
Tomorrow's Washington Post describes what can only be a step forward in our plans for dealing with Iran. Since it appears that Iranian-based al Queda units were involved in the Saudi bombings, we've given up trying to "engage" the mullahs, and have decided to support the Iranian people in their efforts to banish them back to Qom.
In the first place, the State Department had damned well better accept any policy the President chooses. They don't get not to accept a policy. Secondly, they consistently underestimate pro-American feelings in countries with regimes that don't like us, and over-estimate anti-American sentiment in countries with regimes that are friendly. Also, with people marching on the anniversary of the Shah's installation waving American flags, I think it's already clear who the reformers identify with. Funny how they're never concerned that payoffs to Egypt and Jordan will discredit us there.
When you grow up watching Virginia sports, you get used to disappointment. Quickly. Usually not the Red Sox style, coming-from-two-runs-up-in-the-10th-to-lose, disappointment. More like the Chicago Cubs, 93rd-year-of-their-rebuilding-program, style of disappoinment. There is no next year. After each touchdown, the Tradition was for the student body to sing the "Good Old Song." Concerned that this happened infrequently enough that the students might forget the words, they printed them on the beer cups. I remember a regular-season game against Navy. The next day, the Post offered the following comfort to Cavalier fans:
On the rare occasion that Virginia did make it to the Big Game, they usually made sure you got a good seat at the restaurant. They won the 1976 ACC tournament, and promptly lost to DePaul in the first round of the NCAA. The 1981 semifinal against Carolina was over at halftime. They were the last NCAA Division I-A team to go to a bowl game. In 1990, the rode a weak first-half schedule and a series of fluky losses by teams ranked ahead of them to a #1 football ranking for about 13 minutes and a trip to the Sugar Bowl. (This travesty later prompted a rule change by the NCAA.) In New Orleans, they blew a 20-point lead to Tennessee. The couldn't even lose right. When my dad was in school there, they tied Kansas's 27-game record losing streak in football. When they finally won, students were heard to ask the players why they couldn't go ahead and break the record.
Friday, May 23, 2003
Compare the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times today on how Bush got his tax cut through, and it's like night and day. The Times credits appeals to supporting the President in wartime. What? I don't think I heard, even from the Mike Gallaghers and Sean Hannitys anything like that about the tax cut. The WSJ credits smart politics, persistence, Vice President Cheney, and tough negotiating. That's why we read the WSJ.
Thursday, May 22, 2003
In the meantime, the Rocky is reporting that convicted arsonist Terry Barton is mad at the judge. Apparently, he was forced out of his home by the fire, and pitched in to help fight it. Ms. Barton's attorney's think this constitutes too close an involvement in the case.
The Denver Post comes out against a suit by - you guessed it - the teachers union - against Colorado's new vouchers law. The lawsuit is based on Colorado's Blaine Amendment, and the US Supreme Court is probably going to rule on the Constitutionality of those sorts of amendments this year. The law is targeted only at poor kids at bad schools. The CEA could not have picked a better case to discredit their position.
Tuesday, May 20, 2003 This afternoon, the Legislative Council of the Colorado Legislature voted to retain counsel for their defense of the new redistricting plan. How this could be otherwise, I have no idea. Nevertheless, the vote was party-line, 4-2.
She's objecting to hiring a Republican lawyer to represent a Republican-controlled legislature to defend a redistricting plan favorable to Republicans against a lawsuit by a Democratic legislator, and another by a Democratic state Attorney General. I can see where she'd be unhappy, but this kind of comment suggests that Ms. Fitz-Gerald had just come from mingling with the constituents on one of those hometown brewery tours. There are two cases pending here. First, a number of legislative Democrats, unhappy at suddenly having smaller offices with views of the NEA building rather than the mountains, have filed suit against the Secretary of State and the General Assembly. Their claim is, basically, that the Republicans cheated in order to pass an unconstitutional bill. Unless the cheating involved binding and gagging every Democrats on the Hill, nothing was stopping them from shouting "Point of Order," at the time. There certainly is a princple that bodies have to obey their own rules. When agencies mess this up, there are administrative courts. When courts get it wrong, there are appeals courts. To the best of my knowledge, there is no Court of Parliamentary Procedure outside the legislative body itself, and the Body Itself is responsible for getting this stuff right at the time. Legislators go to court, on rare occasion, to challenge the constitutionality of acts they voted against. Mitch McConnell is a plaintiff in a case challenging the gag rule known as McCain-Feingold. They may not get the use of public funds to do it, though, because they were already representing the public when they voted and lost. In this case, the General Assembly finds itself being sued, it certiainly ought to be able to find money in the budget to show up in court. The legislature finds itself in the almost unprecedented position of having to defend its own decisions in court. Now, normally, the Attorney General does this for the state. But in this case, the Attorney General has a case of his own, asking the Supreme Court to overturn a law of the State he represents. To the best of my knowledge, he's not doing this on his own time, or paying for someone to represent him out of his own pocket. In fact, it's hard to see exactly who the Attorney General is representing. It's not the legislature, which passed the law he opposes. It's not the executive, since the Governor singed the bill himself. It's not the judge who imposed the current plan. It looks to me as though the Attorney General is representing the Democratic representatives in a previous session of the Colorado legislature. So if he gets state money to file a suit defending the rights of people who aren't even serving anymore, why on earth should the sitting legislature not get the benefit of counsel? It would be foolish to deny the partisan aspect of this case. But that argues in favor of having a Republican attorney. After all, we've seen what Democrats behave like when they get anywhere near this case. Monday, May 19, 2003
Tomorrow's Washington Post reports that President Bush is under a great deal of pressure to continue the Clinton Policy of pressuring Israel for concessions, never mind what the Palestinians do. The article contains this telling paragraph:
Evidently some people are worried that if enough Jews die, President Bush may regain his moral clarity on the issue. I wouldn't hazard a guess as to which cabinet-level department these people work for. But if they're concerned about outside pressure relenting, they needn't worry. I don't think there's ever been a time when "Europe" wasn't pressing Israel to surrender.
Surprise! The Arab media blames Israel for being attacked. This is news? Evidently, one Jefferson Morley has been given the task of ignoring The Indispensible MEMRI and wading through the reams of Arab Jew-hatred himself. (The column is called "World Opinion Roundup," but, just like World Opinion, it seems to spend a disproportionate amount of time rounding up Arab opinion.) The only newspapers that get any sort of label are the "conservative" Jerusalem Post and the "liberal" Ha'Aretz. The Arab News is quoted as though it were just another newspaper, which, I guess, for Arabs it is.
Terry McAuliffe has accused the President of "McCarthyism," his words, not mine. Over at Powerline, Hindraker notes that it's odd that McAuliffe would try to call the kettle black. But this, too, is typical Clintonian politics.
At the same time, the Chief District Judge Norma Holloway Johnson was bypassing the random computer process for a number of other embarassing cases, all of which somehow ended up in her hands [Washington Post, August 5, 1999]. By late March of 2000, Congress was interested in this peculiarity.
Sunday, May 18, 2003
Let's take Wal-Mart a step further. Let's suppose that only a few people are complaining, and that Wal-Mart is responding to those complaints out of an institutional bias towards conservatism, and, maybe, a little Southern Baptist puritanism. Well, geez, it's their store! If the shareholders have a problem with this, they can bring it up at the next annual meeting, or sell their shares.
Part of the reason Wal-Mart gets hit with this stuff is its perceived power. It does tend to run off competition with their economies of scale, and this is perceived as a narrowing of choice in general. There is some truth to that. Smaller niche stores do tend to get run out of business because they can't compete on price on the 80% of their sales that Wal-Mart carries. Since Wal-Mart is never going to carry the other 20%, I, as a collector or specialist, have to resort to more distant sources, and usually pay more. This also inevitably leads to a consolidation of whatever market we're talking about. But it also means that as I spend an increasing amount of time in Wal-Mart, as they enter more and more business lines, I am less likely even to see items that Wal-Mart doesn't carry. Now, browsing the aisles is harder on-line, and it wouldn't surprise me if it raised the entry bar for certain hobbyists. If I've been doing, say, needlepoint for a year or so, and want to get some more exotic patterns or colors or whatever it is that defines A+ quality needlepoint from the Home-Sweet-Home cross-stitch you see in every sitcom kitchen, I may have to go online. I can't wander into Wal-Mart and ask the local "associate." And the store I would have gone to is gone.
And now for something completely different.
Walk For Israel
Well, nobody's ever going to accuse Federation of an excess of common sense. (Insert obligatory words about all the good work Federation does here.) After last year's tremendous success, we were expecting a fair turnout this year, but Federation decided to charge $18 to walk, and then threatened to bodily pull people out of the march who hadn't registered. The first helped keep the numbers down (nothing like raising prices in a recession), and the second disspated a fair amount of goodwill. Federation tried to pull stunts like this all the time. First, they show they don't know how to play well with others, and then they show they don't want to. We still got good numbers, and both surviving mayoral candidates (that's Mares on the left, Hickenlooper on the right).
The Rocky Mountain News, however, tells you how to apply.
As Colorado's new concealed-carry law goes into effect, the two newspapers in town have two different stories. The lead in the Denver Post shows why math professors shouldn't be making public policy. One CU prof, with more schooling than education, "used to think of the University of Colorado campus as a "safe zone" because its no-guns policy was so strictly enforced." Right. I'm sure that had Columbine found a toothpick in a 9th-grader's locker, they'd have sent him home for a week, demanding to know what kind of food he was eating. Are there any reports, any reports of campus police making random sweps through classrooms? No, because the campus civil libertarians would only allow it if the police were given blinders to make sure they couldn't see any of the books they were carrying. I'm sure he figured that the UN could keep Saddam in check, too.
Friday, May 16, 2003
A couple of follow-up notes to Monday's protest at the synagogue. First, the behavior of the ADL was despicable. The regional director came out, and basically accused us of provoking a confrontation that would lead to headlines. Whereas if we hadn't show up, all that would have happened would have been that Jews would have been verbally abused and physically threatened nose-to-nose rather than from across the street. A couple of weeks ago he wrote a letter to the Intermountain Jewish News basically accusing the governor of being anti-Semitic for supporting school vouchers. That's like accusing Dave Winfield of needing a hunting license to play the outfield in Toronto. The fact is, lots of Jews support vouchers, and before you say, "well, lots of Jews oppose settlements," remember that large number of dictatorial regimes haven't hijacked major international bureaucracies into spending nights and weekends figuring out ways to fix our 3rd grade history textbooks. Everyone knows that singling out Israel is bad, because about 90% of the governments not located in Europe or the Americas are worse. The ADL may believe that vouchers will disproportionately damage Jews, somehow, but that's different from intentionally targeting Jews. We can have a civil discussion about vouchers without calling people who support them, such as myself, anti-Semites. Still, it's good to know that he's got his priorities straight, even if it doesn't leave him time to confront actual Jew-hatred.
Wednesday, May 14, 2003
One other interesting tidbit. 19 hijackers. 19 people in the Saudi cell responsible for the car bombings. 19 is a major numerical theme of Farrakhan's MMM speech.
The filibuster debate also reminds me of a similar problem in the US House of Representatives in 1889. No, I wasn't around then, and neither was the versatile Barbara Tuchman. But she tells a story better than just about any historian I know, and told the story of one of the great transformative periods in Western history, 1894-1914, in vignettes from each of the major powers. Two of the chapters in The Proud Tower concern legislative refrom - the House of Lords giving up the veto, and the House of Representatives changing its quorum rules. The latter is especially instructive.
It's a colorful story, full of chaos, parliamentary maneuver, Democrats trying to leave and being physically restrained, and so forth. And not without risk to Speaker Reed, who wasn't sure even his own party would support him. But in the end, the moral is the same: the majority cannot be tyrannous, but must still be able to vote.
The current discussion of "going nuclear" by the Senate Republicans isn't unprecedented. The Washington Times recalls the same vote happening in 1975, by Democrats, to reduce the cloture requirements from 67 to 60 votes. The issues then were the same as now: an obstructionist minority, and some in the majority fearful of the repercussions. Among those worried: Senator Robert Byrd, back before he went nuts. Among those for the change: Pat Leahy and Ted Kennedy. I guess where you stand depends on where you sit.
By now, we know that the Saudi Police, given a repreive from confining schoolgirls to burning buildings, had found this terror cell and arrested, or tried to arrest them. This is just conjecture, but is it possible that they were allowed to escape? Not as a matter of official policy necessarily, but by one or more of the arresting officers. To me, it just seems unlikely that 19 guys managed to walk away, or even drive away, from a firefight with police who were serious about arresting them. Given that this is Saudi Arabia we're talking about, concern for human life probably wasn't the officers' most pressing concern.
Tuesday, May 13, 2003
I have no idea if this is normal, but something tells me it's not. Both here and in Texas, the Democrats in the state legislature last year failed to pass a redistricting plan, instead turning the job over to a Democratic judge. There, as here, the Republicans won outright control of the legislative and executive branches, and are pushing through their versions of the plan. There, unlike here, the Democrats have fled the state to avoid a quorum. (Here they're just planning to litigate again.)
Almost as unfortunate was the behavior of the ADL. Without our presence there, people going into the conference, including Holocaust survivors, would have been subjected to being shouted at and being called Nazis. The local head of the ADL came out to castigate us for making a scene. In fact, we neither called the media, nor created the scene. The only thing we did was create a presence, so the conference-goers could go in and out in peace.
Last night, the ADL and AIPAC hosted a public education meeting at one of the local synagogues, Rodef Shalom. The worst elements turned out to protest the event, and here they are. We did form a counter demo, so the police kept them on their side of the street, and we kept to ours. Although, as is typical of these "peaceful" folk, three times one of them crossed over to our side. A couple of things to notice about the picture below:
We spent the evening singing Hatikvah and making fun of them. At one point, they started the thuggish chant "No Justice, No Peace." Joe, a real firebrand in his 60s, started chanting it back at them, and for a few moments, both sides were chanting the same thing. Eventually, they scratched their heads and stopped.
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